The Relationship of Early Expressed Milk Quantity and Later Full Breastmilk Feeding After Very Preterm Birth: A Cohort Study

When infants cannot directly breastfeed after birth, mothers are advised to initiate lactation through mechanical expression. Families are recommended to target an expression volume of at least 500-750 mL by Day 14 after birth, as this is considered a 'critical window' to establish milk supply. This is challenging for many mothers after a very preterm birth. This article explores the relationship of early milk quantity and later full breastmilk feeding as a 'gold standard' outcome, using statistical techniques designed for diagnostic tests. A cohort of 132 mothers of infants born at 23 + 0 to 31 + 6 weeks' gestational age submitted expressing logs on Day 4, 14 and 21 after birth and provided later feeding outcome. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the following 24-h milk quantities were identified as associated with high probability of full breastmilk at 36 weeks' post-menstrual age (PMA): on Day 4, ≥250 g (specificity 88%; positive predictive value 88%) and on Day 21 ≥650 g (specificity 88%; positive predictive value 91%). The following values were identified as associated with low probability of full breastmilk at 36 weeks' PMA: on Day 4 <50 g (sensitivity 92%; negative predictive value 72%) and on Day 21 <250 g (sensitivity 90%; negative predictive value 70%). Participants exceeding the high thresholds had 3-4 times increased likelihood of full breastmilk, whereas those below the low thresholds had 3-5 times lower likelihood. These thresholds have potential as targets for families, to provide individualised prognostic information and to help clinicians target more intensive lactation support.