Comparative Evaluation of AlphaFold2 and Disorder Predictors for Prediction of Intrinsic Disorder, Disorder Content and Fully Disordered Proteins

We expand studies of AlphaFold2 (AF2) in the context of intrinsic disorder prediction by comparing it against a broad selection of 20 accurate, popular and recently released disorder predictors. We use 25% larger benchmark dataset with 646 proteins and cover protein-level predictions of disorder content and fully disordered proteins. AF2-based disorder predictions secure a relatively high Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.77 and are statistically outperformed by several modern disorder predictors that secure AUCs around 0.8 with median runtime of about 20 s compared to 1200 s for AF2. Moreover, AF2 provides modestly accurate predictions of fully disordered proteins (F1 = 0.59 vs. 0.91 for the best disorder predictor) and disorder content (mean absolute error of 0.21 vs. 0.15). AF2 also generates statistically more accurate disorder predictions for about 20% of proteins that have relatively short sequences and a few disordered regions that tend to be located at the sequence termini, and which are absent of disordered protein-binding regions. Interestingly, AF2 and the most accurate disorder predictors rely on deep neural networks, suggesting that these models are useful for protein structure and disorder predictions.