LLM-PBC: Logic Learning Machine-Based Explainable Rules Accurately Stratify the Genetic Risk of Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Background: The application of Machine Learning (ML) to genetic individual-level data represents a foreseeable advancement for the field, which is still in its infancy. Here, we aimed to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of an ML-based model for disease risk prediction applied to Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC).

Methods: Genome-wide significant variants identified in subjects of European ancestry in the recently released second international meta-analysis of GWAS in PBC were used as input data. Quality-checked, individual genomic data from two Italian cohorts were used. The ML included the following steps: import of genotype and phenotype data, genetic variant selection, supervised classification of PBC by genotype, generation of "if-then" rules for disease prediction by logic learning machine (LLM), and model validation in a different cohort.

Results: The training cohort included 1345 individuals: 444 were PBC cases and 901 were healthy controls. After pre-processing, 41,899 variants entered the analysis. Several configurations of parameters related to feature selection were simulated. The best LLM model reached an Accuracy of 71.7%, a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.29, a Youden's value of 0.21, a Sensitivity of 0.28, a Specificity of 0.93, a Positive Predictive Value of 0.66, and a Negative Predictive Value of 0.72. Thirty-eight rules were generated. The rule with the highest covering (19.14) included the following genes: RIN3, KANSL1, TIMMDC1, TNPO3. The validation cohort included 834 individuals: 255 cases and 579 controls. By applying the ruleset derived in the training cohort, the Area under the Curve of the model was 0.73.

Conclusions: This study represents the first illustration of an ML model applied to common variants associated with PBC. Our approach is computationally feasible, leverages individual-level data to generate intelligible rules, and can be used for disease prediction in at-risk individuals.