Health Economic Analysis of Vaccine Options for the Polio Eradication Endgame: 2022-2036

Overview

Journal Expert Rev Vaccines

Date 2022 Sep 26

PMID 36154436

Authors

Kimberly M Thompson

Dominika A Kalkowska

Kamran Badizadegan

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame.

Research Design And Methods: With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022.

Results: Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs.

Conclusions: Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.

Citing Articles

Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).

Badizadegan N, Wassilak S, Estivariz C, Wiesen E, Burns C, Bolu O Pathogens. 2024; 13(9).

PMID: 39338995 PMC: 11435063. DOI: 10.3390/pathogens13090804.

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.

Thompson K, Badizadegan K Pathogens. 2024; 13(6).

PMID: 38921733 PMC: 11206708. DOI: 10.3390/pathogens13060435.

Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.

Thompson K, Kalkowska D, Kidd S, Burns C, Badizadegan K Vaccine. 2024; 42(4):819-827.

PMID: 38218668 PMC: 10947589. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.12.081.

Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.

Kalkowska D, Wassilak S, Wiesen E, Estivariz C, Burns C, Badizadegan K Gates Open Res. 2023; 7:55.

PMID: 37547300 PMC: 10403636. DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.14511.1.

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.

Kalkowska D, Wassilak S, Wiesen E, Burns C, Pallansch M, Badizadegan K Risk Anal. 2023; 44(2):366-378.

PMID: 37344934 PMC: 10733544. DOI: 10.1111/risa.14158.

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