Modeling Options to Manage Type 1 Wild Poliovirus Imported into Israel in 2013

Overview

Journal J Infect Dis

Publisher Oxford University Press

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2014 Dec 16

PMID 25505296

Citations 53

Authors

Dominika A Kalkowska

Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens

Itamar Grotto

Lester M Shulman

Emilia Anis

Steven G F Wassilak

Mark A Pallansch

Kimberly M Thompson

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: After 25 years without poliomyelitis cases caused by circulating wild poliovirus (WPV) in Israel, sewage sampling detected WPV type 1 (WPV1) in April 2013, despite high vaccination coverage with only inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) since 2005.

Methods: We used a differential equation-based model to simulate the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and population immunity in Israel due to past exposure to WPV and use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in addition to IPV. We explored the influences of various immunization options to stop imported WPV1 circulation in Israel.

Results: We successfully modeled the potential for WPVs to circulate without detected cases in Israel. Maintaining a sequential IPV/OPV schedule instead of switching to an IPV-only schedule in 2005 would have kept population immunity high enough in Israel to prevent WPV1 circulation. The Israeli response to WPV1 detection prevented paralytic cases; a more rapid response might have interrupted transmission more quickly.

Conclusions: IPV-based protection alone might not provide sufficient population immunity to prevent poliovirus transmission after an importation. As countries transition to IPV in immunization schedules, they may need to actively manage population immunity and consider continued use of OPV, to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses before globally coordinated cessation of OPV use.

Citing Articles

Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.

Badizadegan K, Thompson K PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025; 5(2):e0004168.

PMID: 39919149 PMC: 11805368. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004168.

Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.

Thompson K, Kalkowska D, Kidd S, Burns C, Badizadegan K Vaccine. 2024; 42(4):819-827.

PMID: 38218668 PMC: 10947589. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.12.081.

Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

Kalkowska D, Badizadegan K, Routh J, Burns C, Rosenberg E, Brenner I Expert Rev Vaccines. 2024; 23(1):186-195.

PMID: 38164695 PMC: 11284832. DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.

Thompson K, Kalkowska D, Routh J, Brenner I, Rosenberg E, Zucker J J Infect Dis. 2023; 229(4):1097-1106.

PMID: 37596838 PMC: 11284859. DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad355.

The role of a genetically stable, novel oral type 2 poliovirus vaccine in the poliomyelitis endgame.

Clemens S, Santos G, Gonzalez I, Clemens R Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2023; 47:e99.

PMID: 37405121 PMC: 10317245. DOI: 10.26633/RPSP.2023.99.

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