A Novel Screening Tool to Predict Severe Acute Malnutrition Through Automated Monitoring of Weight-for-age Growth Curves

Weight-for-age (WFA) growth faltering often precedes severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children, yet it is often missed during routine growth monitoring. Automated interpretation of WFA growth within electronic health records could expedite the identification of children at risk of SAM. This study aimed to develop an automated screening tool to predict SAM risk from WFA growth, and to determine its predictive ability compared with simple changes in weight or WFA z-score. To develop the screening tool, South African child growth experts (n = 30) rated SAM risk on 100 WFA growth curves, which were then used to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to assess SAM risk from consecutive WFA z-scores. The ANN was validated in 185 children under five (63 SAM cases; 122 controls) using diagnostic accuracy methodology. The ANN's performance was compared with that of changes in weight or WFA z-score. Even though experts' SAM risk ratings of the WFA growth curves differed considerably, the ANN achieved a sensitivity of 73.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 60.3; 83.4), specificity of 86.1% (95% CI: 78.6; 91.7) and receiver-operating characteristic curve area of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.732; 0.859) during validation with real cases, outperforming changes in weight or WFA z-scores. The ANN, as an automated screening tool, could markedly improve the identification of children at risk of SAM using routinely collected WFA growth information.