Price Trends of Healthy and Less Healthy Foods and Beverages in Mexico from 2011-2018

Background: Cost is one of the main drivers of food selection; thus it is important to monitor food prices. Evidence from low- and middle-income countries such as Mexico is limited.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prices and price trends of healthy and less healthy food/beverage groups in Mexico from 2011 to 2018.

Design: This study used a time series of the prices of foods and beverages classified by 1) healthiness, 2) processing level, and 3) pairs of healthy/less healthy substitutes.

Setting: Food and beverage prices used to estimate the Consumer Price Index were obtained. Prices were collected weekly from 46 cities (>20,000 habitants) distributed across the country.

Main Outcome Measures: Price trend (% change/year) from 2011 to 2018 for all food/beverage groups and price/100 g in 2018 for pairs of healthy/less healthy substitutes were obtained.

Statistical Analyses: Linear regression models were used for each food/beverage group, with the logarithm of deflated price as the dependent variable and time (years) as the independent variable.

Results: On average, prices for less healthy foods and beverages increased more than prices of healthy foods and beverages (foods: 1.72% vs 0.70% change/year; beverages: 1.61% vs -0.19% change/year). The price change was similar for unprocessed/minimally processed foods and ultraprocessed foods (1.95% vs 1.85% change/year); however, within each processing category, the price of less healthy foods increased more. By pairs of substitutes (within food/beverage groups), the healthier option for bread, sodas, and poultry was more expensive (price/100 g) in 2018, whereas for red meat, cheese, mayonnaise, and milk, the healthier option was cheaper.

Conclusions: Overall, the food prices of less healthy foods and beverages increased more than the food prices of healthy foods and beverages. However, by processing level there was no difference, and for pairs of healthy/less healthy substitutes results were mixed. Continued monitoring of food prices is warranted, and future research is needed to understand how these price changes affect dietary quality.