A Three-component Biomarker Panel for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Overview

Journal Am J Trop Med Hyg

Specialty Tropical Medicine

Date 2012 Feb 4

PMID 22302872

Citations 40

Authors

Allan R Brasier

Hyunsu Ju

Josefina Garcia

Heidi M Spratt

Sundar S Victor

Brett M Forshey

Eric S Halsey

Guillermo Comach

Gloria Sierra

Patrick J Blair

Claudio Rocha

Amy C Morrison

Thomas W Scott

Isabel Bazan

Tadeusz J Kochel

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DF and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome.

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