Outcome Analysis of Patients with Acute Pancreatitis by Using an Artificial Neural Network

Rationale And Objectives: The authors performed this study to evaluate the ability of an artificial neural network (ANN) that uses radiologic and laboratory data to predict the outcome in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Materials And Methods: An ANN was constructed with data from 92 patients with acute pancreatitis who underwent computed tomography (CT). Input nodes included clinical, laboratory, and CT data. The ANN was trained and tested by using a round-robin technique, and the performance of the ANN was compared with that of linear discriminant analysis and Ranson and Balthazar grading systems by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The length of hospital stay was used as an outcome measure.

Results: Hospital stay ranged from 0 to 45 days, with a mean of 8.4 days. The hospital stay was shorter than the mean for 62 patients and longer than the mean for 30. The 23 input features were reduced by using stepwise linear discriminant analysis, and an ANN was developed with the six most statistically significant parameters (blood pressure, extent of inflammation, fluid aspiration, serum creatinine level, serum calcium level, and the presence of concurrent severe illness). With these features, the ANN successfully predicted whether the patient would exceed the mean length of stay (Az = 0.83 +/- 0.05). Although the Az performance of the ANN was statistically significantly better than that of the Ranson (Az = 0.68 +/- 0.06, P < .02) and Balthazar (Az = 0.62 +/- 0.06, P < .003) grades, it was not significantly better than that of linear discriminant analysis (Az = 0.82 +/- 0.05, P = .53).

Conclusion: An ANN may be useful for predicting outcome in patients with acute pancreatitis.