Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model

Overview

Journal Vaccines (Basel)

Date 2025 Feb 26

PMID 40006733

Authors

Clive Pritchard

Lucie Kutikova

Richard Pitman

Kira Zhi Hua Lai

Hadi Beyhaghi

IIana Gibbons

Amanda Erbe

Marija Zivkovic-Gojovic

Catherine Cosgrove

Mark Sculpher

David Salisbury

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 remains a key measure to control COVID-19. Nuvaxovid, a recombinant Matrix-M-adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, showed similar efficacy to mRNA vaccines in clinical trials and real-world studies, with lower rates of reactogenicity. To support decision making on UK vaccine selection, a population-based compartmental dynamic transmission model with a cost-utility component was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nuvaxovid compared with mRNA vaccines from a UK National Health Service perspective. The model was calibrated to official epidemiology statistics for mortality, incidence, and hospitalisation. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the probabilistic base case, a Nuvaxovid-only strategy provided total incremental cost savings of GBP 1,338,323 and 1558 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with an mRNA-only vaccination strategy. Cost savings were driven by reduced cold chain-related operational costs and vaccine wastage, while QALY gains were driven by potential differences in vaccine tolerability. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated an approximately 70% probability of cost-effectiveness with Nuvaxovid-only versus mRNA-only vaccination across most cost-effectiveness thresholds (up to GBP 300,000/QALY gained). Nuvaxovid remained dominant over mRNA vaccines in scenario analyses assessing vaccine efficacy waning, Nuvaxovid market shares, and the vaccinated population.

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