Business-as-usual Trends Will Largely Miss 2030 Global Conservation Targets

Overview

Journal Ambio

Date 2024 Nov 7

PMID 39508928

Authors

Ignacio Palomo

Alberto Gonzalez-Garcia

Paul J Ferraro

Roldan Muradian

Unai Pascual

Manuel Arboledas

James M Bullock

Enora Bruley

Erik Gomez-Baggethun

Sandra Lavorel

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.

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