Creatinine, Cystatin C, Muscle Mass, and Mortality: Findings from a Primary and Replication Population-based Cohort

Background: Serum creatinine is used as initial test to derive eGFR and confirmatory testing with serum cystatin C is recommended when creatinine-based eGFR is considered less accurate due to deviant muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with increased risk of premature mortality. However, the associations of serum creatinine and cystatin C with muscle mass and mortality remain unclear and require further investigation to better inform clinical decision-making.

Methods: We included 8437 community-dwelling adults enrolled in the Dutch PREVEND study and 5033 in the US NHANES replication cohort. Associations of serum creatinine and/or cystatin C with muscle mass surrogates and mortality were quantified with linear and Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively. Missing observations in covariates were multiply imputed using Substantive Model Compatible Fully Conditional Specification.

Results: Mean (SD) age of PREVEND and NHANES participants (50% and 48% male) were 49.8 (12.6) and 48.7 (18.7) years, respectively. Median (Q1-Q3) serum creatinine and cystatin C were 71 (61-80) and 80 (62-88) μmol/L and 0.87 (0.78-0.98) and 0.91 (0.80-1.10) mg/L, respectively. Higher serum creatinine was associated with greater muscle mass, while serum cystatin C was not associated with muscle mass. Adjusting both markers for each other strengthened the positive relationship between serum creatinine and muscle mass and revealed an inverse association between serum cystatin C and muscle mass. In the PREVEND cohort, 1636 (19%) deaths were registered over a median follow-up of 12.9 (5.8-16.3) years with a 10-year mortality rate (95% CI) of 7.6% (7.1-8.2%). In the NHANES, 1273 (25%) deaths were registered over a median follow-up of 17.9 (17.3-18.5) years with a 10-year mortality rate of 13.8% (12.8-14.7%). Both markers were associated with increased mortality. Notably, when adjusted for each other, higher serum creatinine was associated with decreased mortality, while the association between serum cystatin C and increased mortality strengthened. The shapes of the associations in the PREVEND study and NHANES were almost identical.

Conclusions: The strong association between serum creatinine and muscle mass challenges its reliability as GFR marker, necessitating a more cautious approach in its clinical use. The minimal association between serum cystatin C and muscle mass supports its increased use as a more reliable alternative in routine clinical practice.