Drivers and Impact of the Early Silent Invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha

Overview

Journal Nat Commun

Specialty Biology

Date 2024 Mar 9

PMID 38461311

Authors

Benjamin Faucher

Chiara E Sabbatini

Peter Czuppon

Moritz U G Kraemer

Philippe Lemey

Vittoria Colizza

Francois Blanquart

Pierre-Yves Boelle

Chiara Poletto

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.

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