Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality Burden: Predictions for 2030 Based on Bayesian Age-period-cohort Analysis of China and Global Mortality Burden from 1990 to 2019

Overview

Journal J Diabetes Investig

Specialty Endocrinology

Date 2024 Jan 24

PMID 38265170

Authors

Chunping Dong

Guifu Wu

Hui Li

Yuan Qiao

Shan Gao

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Aims: This study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends.

Materials And Methods: Data came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990-2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030.

Results: In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC -2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC -0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40-44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.

Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.

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