Global, Regional, and National Burden of HIV and Tuberculosis and Predictions by Bayesian Age-period-cohort Analysis: a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Overview

Journal Front Reprod Health

Date 2024 Dec 25

PMID 39720120

Authors

Xuebin Tian

Chong Wang

Zhihao Hao

Jingjing Chen

Nanping Wu

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objective: To assess sex, age, regional differences, and the changing trend in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis (HIV-TB) in different regions from 1990 to 2021, and project future trends.

Methods: Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data were analyzed to assess HIV-TB incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2021, including different types of TB co-infections (drug-susceptible, multidrug-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to forecast age-standardized DALY rates through 2035.

Results: In 2021, there were approximately 1.76 million HIV-TB infections and 200,895 deaths globally. The highest burden of HIV-DS-TB and HIV-MDR-TB was found in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, while HIV-XDR-TB was most prevalent in Eastern Europe. The co-infection burden was highest among individuals aged 30-49. Key risk factors were unsafe sex, drug use, and intimate partner violence, with regional variations. The global burden of HIV-TB remains high, and age-standardized DALY rates are expected to increase in the coming years, especially in regions with low socio-demographic indices (SDI).

Conclusion: The burden of HIV-TB co-infection correlates with the socio-demographic index (SDI): countries with a low SDI have a higher burden. Therefore, clinical diagnosis and treatment in such areas are more challenging and may warrant more attention. High death rates underscore the importance of early management.

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