Mapping Stunted Children in Ethiopia Using Two Decades of Data Between 2000 and 2019. A Geospatial Analysis Through the Bayesian Approach

Background: Childhood stunting is a major public health problem globally, resulting in poor cognition and educational performance, low adult wages, low productivity, and an increased risk of nutrition-related chronic diseases in adulthood life. Accurate and reliable data on the prevalence of stunting over time with a sub-national estimate are scarce in Ethiopia.

Objective: Our objective was to investigate the spatiotemporal distributions and ecological level drivers of stunting among under-five children over time in Ethiopia.

Methods: A geospatial analysis using the Bayesian framework was employed to map the spatial variations of stunting among children aged less than five years. The data for the primary outcome were obtained from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (2000-2019) and covariates data were accessed from different publicly available credible sources. The spatial binomial regression model was fitted to identify drivers of child stunting using the Bayesian approach.

Result: The national prevalence of stunting was 47.9 in 2000, 43.3 in 2005, 37.3 in 2011, 36.6 in 2016, and 35.9 in 2019, with a total reduction rate of 25%. Substantial spatial clustering of stunting was observed in the Northern (Tigray), Northcentral (Amhara), and Northwestern (Amhara) parts of Ethiopia. Temperature (mean regression coefficient (β): -0.19; 95% credible interval (95% CrI): -0.25, -0.12) and population density (β: -0.012; 95% CrI: -0.016, -0.009) were negatively associated with stunting, whereas travel time to the nearest cities (β: 0.12; 95% CrI: 0.064, 0.17) was positively associated with child stunting in Ethiopia.

Conclusion: The prevalence of stunting varied substantially at subnational and local levels over time. Clustering of stunted children were observed in the Northern parts of Ethiopia. Temperature, population density and travel time to the nearest cities were identified as the drivers of stunting in children. Improving community awareness of child nutrition through community health extension programs should be strengthened.