Estimating the Future Clinical and Economic Benefits of Improving Osteoporosis Diagnosis and Treatment Among Postmenopausal Women Across Eight European Countries

Purpose: Osteoporosis is associated with significant clinical and economic burden, expected to further increase with an ageing population. This modelling analysis assessed clinical and economic outcomes under different hypothetical disease management interventions to reduce this burden.

Methods: A population-level, cross-sectional cohort model was developed to estimate numbers of incident fractures and direct costs of care among women (≥ 70 years) in eight European countries under different hypothetical interventions: (1) an improvement in the risk assessment rate, (2) an improvement in the treatment adherence rate and (3) a combination of interventions 1 and 2. A 50% improvement from the status quo, based on existing disease management patterns, was evaluated in the main analysis; scenario analyses evaluated improvement of either 10 or 100%.

Results: Based on existing disease management patterns, a 44% increase in the annual number of fractures and costs was predicted from 2020 to 2040: from 1.2 million fractures and €12.8 billion in 2020 to 1.8 million fractures and €18.4 billion in 2040. Intervention 3 provided the greatest fracture reduction and cost savings (a decrease of 17.9% and 15.2% in fractures and cost, respectively) in 2040 compared with intervention 1 (decreases of 8.7% and 7.0% in fractures and cost, respectively) and intervention 2 (10.0% and 8.8% reductions in fracture and cost, respectively). Scenario analyses showed similar patterns.

Conclusion: These analyses suggest that interventions which improve fracture risk assessment and adherence to treatments would relieve the burden of osteoporosis, and that a combination strategy would achieve greatest benefits.