Estimating the Future Clinical and Economic Benefits of Improving Osteoporosis Diagnosis and Treatment Among Women in Japan: a Simulation Projection Model from 2020 to 2040

Introduction: Japan is currently home to the world's oldest population and the 65 + years demographic is expected to grow to 35% by 2040. Thus, identifying strategies to reduce clinical and economic burden associated with osteoporosis among this at-risk population is critical.

Methods: A microsimulation model was developed to project osteoporotic annual fracture incidence and costs among PMW 2020-2040. Fracture risk was estimated using a simplified Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Fracture estimates were based on annualized FRAX risk and treatment impact. Published literature informed inputs for direct and indirect fracture costs, DXA screening costs, and treatment costs and efficacy. Japan's current screening and treatment rates were compared against 50% increases to (1) case finding (screening rate and subsequent treatment rate) and (2) treatment rate among those at highest fracture risk.

Results: From 2020 to 2040, 21.6 million fractures are projected costing US $410.2 billion. Increased case finding scenario resulted in the prevention of 456.9 thousand primary and 340.9 thousand second + fractures saving US $4.25 billion. Increased treatment scenario led to 500.5 thousand and 435.5 thousand fewer primary and second + fractures, respectively, and reduced economic burden by $3.1 billion.

Conclusion: Improvements to rates of osteoporosis screening and preventive treatment in Japan's aging population through disease awareness campaigns and post-fracture care programs, among others, will likely reduce osteoporosis-associated clinical and economic burden.