Distinguishing Loss-of-Function and Gain-of-Function Variants Using a Random Forest Classification Model Trained on Clinical Features

Background And Objectives: Pathogenic variants at the voltage-gated sodium channel gene, , are associated with a wide spectrum of clinical disease outcomes. A critical challenge for neurologists is to determine whether patients carry gain-of-function (GOF) or loss-of-function (LOF) variants to guide treatment decisions, yet in vitro studies to infer channel function are often not feasible in the clinic. In this study, we develop a predictive modeling approach to classify variants based on clinical features present at initial diagnosis.

Methods: We performed an exhaustive search for individuals deemed to carry SCN8A GOF and LOF variants by means of in vitro studies in heterologous cell systems, or because the variant was classified as truncating, and recorded clinical features. This resulted in a total of 69 LOF variants: 34 missense and 35 truncating variants, including 9 nonsense, 13 frameshift, 6 splice site, 6 indels, and 1 large deletion. We then assembled a truth set of variants with known functional effects, excluding individuals carrying variants at other loci associated with epilepsy. We then trained a predictive model based on random forest using this truth set of 45 LOF variants and 45 GOF variants randomly selected from a set of variants tested by in vitro methods.

Results: Phenotypic categories assigned to individuals correlated strongly with GOF or LOF variants. All patients with GOF variants experienced early-onset seizures (mean age at onset = 4.5 ± 3.1 months) while only 64.4% patients with LOF variants had seizures, most of which were late-onset absence seizures (mean age at onset = 40.0 ± 38.1 months). With high accuracy (95.4%), our model including 5 key clinical features classified individuals with GOF and LOF variants into 2 distinct cohorts differing in age at seizure onset, development of seizures, seizure type, intellectual disability, and developmental and epileptic encephalopathy.

Discussion: The results support the hypothesis that patients with GOF and LOF variants represent distinct clinical phenotypes. The clinical model developed in this study has great utility because it provides a rapid and highly accurate platform for predicting the functional class of patient variants during diagnosis, which can aid in initial treatment decisions and improve prognosis.