Future Number of People with Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes in Germany Until 2040: an Analysis Based on Claims Data

Overview

Journal BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care

Specialty Endocrinology

Date 2023 Apr 6

PMID 37024151

Authors

Dina Voeltz

Ralph Brinks

Thaddaus Tonnies

Annika Hoyer

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Introduction: We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.

Research Design And Methods: We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes.

Results: Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%).

Conclusions: For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.

Citing Articles

Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany: a projection until 2040 including incidence trends observed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Tonnies T, Voeltz D, Voss S, Hoyer A, Brinks R Front Epidemiol. 2025; 5:1388189.

PMID: 40040960 PMC: 11876116. DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2025.1388189.

Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.

Hass L, Knippschild S, Tonnies T, Hoyer A, Palm R, Voss S Front Public Health. 2024; 12:1456320.

PMID: 39540091 PMC: 11558338. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1456320.

Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.

Voeltz D, Vetterer M, Seidel-Jacobs E, Brinks R, Tonnies T, Hoyer A Popul Health Metr. 2024; 22(1):17.

PMID: 39026351 PMC: 11264726. DOI: 10.1186/s12963-024-00337-x.

Increasing trend of childhood type 1 diabetes incidence: 20-year observation from Greater Poland Province, Poland.

Niechcial E, Michalak M, Skowronska B, Fichna P Acta Diabetol. 2024; 61(12):1609-1617.

PMID: 39023767 PMC: 11628569. DOI: 10.1007/s00592-024-02339-5.

Incidence of Parkinson's disease in Germany based on prevalence data from 70 million patients of the statutory health insurance.

Wattenbach C, Ellrichmann G, Feinkohl I, Voss S, Brinks R BMC Neurol. 2024; 24(1):221.

PMID: 38937689 PMC: 11210077. DOI: 10.1186/s12883-024-03739-4.

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