The Malaria Transmission in Anhui Province China

cases have opposite trends in Anhui China in the past decade. Long term and seasonal trends in the transmission rate of in Africa has been well studied, however that of transmitted by in China has not been investigated. There is a lot of work on the relationship between cases and climatic factors in China, with sometimes contradicting results. However, how climatic factors affect transmission rate of in China is unknown. We used Anhui province as an example to analyze the recent transmission dynamics where two types of malaria have been reported with differing etiologies. We examined breakpoints of the and malaria long term dynamics in the recent decade. For locally transmitted malaria, we analyzed the transmission rate and its seasonality using the combined human and mosquitos SIR-SI model with time-varied mosquito biting rate. We identified the effects of meteorological factors on the seasonality in transmission rate using a GAM model. For the imported malaria, we analyzed the potential reason for the observed increase in cases. The breakpoints of and dynamics happened in a same year, 2010. The seasonality in the transmission rate of malaria was high (42.4%) and was linearly associated with temperature and nonlinearly with rainfall. The abrupt increase in imported cases after the breakpoint was significantly related to the increased annual Chinese investment in Africa. Under the conditions of the existing vectors of malaria, long-term trends in climatic factors, and increasing trend in migration to/from endemic areas and imported malaria cases, we should be cautious of the possibility of the reestablishment of malaria in regions where it has been eliminated or the establishment of other vector-borne diseases.