The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission

Overview

Journal PLoS One

Specialties General Medicine
Science

Date 2013 Nov 19

PMID 24244467

Citations 127

Authors

Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

William A Nelson

Krijn P Paaijmans

Andrew F Read

Matthew B Thomas

Ottar N Bjornstad

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

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