Demographic Modelling Helps Track the Rapid and Recent Divergence of a Conifer Species Pair from Central Mexico

Secondary contact of recently diverged species may have several outcomes, ranging from rampant hybridization to reinforced reproductive isolation. In plants, selfing tolerance and disjunct reproductive phenology may lead to reproductive isolation at contact zones. However, they may also evolve under both allopatric or parapatric frameworks and originate from adaptive and/or neutral forces. Inferring the historical demography of diverging taxa is thus a crucial step to identify factors that may have led to putative reproductive isolation. We explored various competing demographypotheses to account for the rapid divergence of a fir species complex (Abies flinckii-A. religiosa) distributed in "sky-islands" across central Mexico (i.e., along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt; TMVB). Despite co-occurring in two independent sympatric regions (west and centre), these taxa rarely interbreed because of disjunct reproductive phenologies. We genotyped 1147 single nucleotide polymorphisms, generated by GBS (genotyping by sequencing), across 23 populations, and compared multiple scenarios based on the geological history of the TMVB. The best-fitting model revealed one of the most rapid and complete speciation cases for a conifer species-pair, dating back to ~1.2 million years ago. Coupled with the lack of support for stepwise colonization, our coalescent inferences point to an early cessation of interspecific gene flow under parapatric speciation; ancestral gene flow during divergence was asymmetrical (mostly from western firs into A. religiosa) and exclusive to the most ancient (i.e., central) contact zone. Factors promoting rapid reproductive isolation should be explored in other slowly evolving species complexes as they may account for the large tropical and subtropical diversity.