Inflammatory Prognostic Factors in Advanced or Recurrent Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Treated with Nivolumab

Background: In Japan, nivolumab administration is the standard treatment for patients with unresectable advanced or recurrent esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who are refractory or intolerant to fluoropyrimidines and platinum-based chemotherapy. We determined if inflammatory prognostic factors are useful in patients with ESCC treated with nivolumab monotherapy.

Methods: The clinical data of patients with ESCC treated with nivolumab monotherapy as the second- or later-line treatment were retrospectively analyzed. Neutrophil/lymphocyte, platelet/lymphocyte, and C-reactive protein/albumin ratios (CAR); prognostic index; and prognostic nutritional index were investigated. Cut-off values for each factor were determined according to overall survival using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results: During January 2017-June 2021, 93 consecutive patients with ESCC were enrolled from five institutions (median age, 70 years; male, 77%). With a median follow-up period of 9.1 (range, 1.0-34.7) months, the median overall and progression-free survival were 12.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.0-16.6) and 4.0 (95% CI, 2.6-5.4) months, respectively. Of five inflammatory prognostic factors, the cut-off value for CAR was 0.62; prognosis was significantly longer in those with CAR < 0.62 (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22-0.67; p = 0.001).

Conclusions: Inflammatory prognostic factors were useful in predicting prognosis for ESCC patients pretreated with nivolumab, especially for those with CAR < 0.62, suggesting that CAR adequately reflects prognosis.