Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Radiomic Evaluation with Serial PET/CT: Exploring Features Predictive of Survival in Patients with Long-Term Follow-Up

Purpose: We aim determine the value of PET and CT radiomic parameters on survival with serial follow-up PET/CT in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) for which curative intent therapy is undertaken.

Methods: Patients with NPC and available pre-treatment as well as follow up PET/CT were included from 2005 to 2006 and were followed to 2021. Baseline demographic, radiological and outcome data were collected. Univariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate features from baseline and follow-up time points, and landmark analyses were performed for each time point.

Results: Sixty patients were enrolled, and two-hundred and seventy-eight (278) PET/CT were at baseline and during follow-up. Thirty-eight percent (38%) were female, and sixty-two patients were male. All patients underwent curative radiation or chemoradiation therapy. The median follow-up was 11.72 years (1.26-14.86). Five-year and ten-year overall survivals (OSs) were 80.0% and 66.2%, and progression-free survival (PFS) was 90.0% and 74.4%. Time-dependent modelling suggested that, among others, PET gray-level zone length matrix (GLZLM) gray-level non-uniformity (GLNU) (HR 2.74 95% CI 1.06, 7.05) was significantly associated with OS. Landmark analyses suggested that CT parameters were most predictive at 15 month, whereas PET parameters were most predictive at time points 3, 6, 9 and 15 month.

Conclusions: This study with long-term follow up data on NPC suggests that mainly PET-derived radiomic features are predictive for OS but not PFS in a time-dependent evaluation. Furthermore, CT radiomic measures may predict OS and PFS best at initial and long-term follow-up time points and PET measures may be more predictive in the interval. These modalities are commonly used in NPC surveillance, and prospective validation should be considered.