The Impact of Girl Child Marriage on the Completion of the First Cycle of Secondary Education in Zimbabwe: A Propensity Score Analysis

Background: The association between girl child marriage and education is widely acknowledged; however, there is no large body of demographic studies from Zimbabwe that have addressed this aspect. This study aimed to examine the extent to which child marriage affects one academic milestone, i.e. completion of the Ordinary Level, the first cycle of high school, which is also the most critical indicator of educational achievement in Zimbabwe.

Methods: We used the 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey and extracted 2380 cases of ever-married women aged between 20-29 years. We applied a propensity score-based method, which allowed us to mimic a hypothetical experiment and estimate outcomes between treated and untreated subjects.

Results: Our results suggest that child age at first marriage is concentrated between the ages of 15-22, with the typical age at first marriage being 18 years. Both logistic regression and PSM models revealed that early marriage decreased the chances of completing the first cycle of high school. Regression adjustment produced an estimate of prevalence ratio (PR) of 0.446 (95% CI: 0.374-0.532), while PSM resulted in an estimate (PR = 0.381; 95% CI: 0.298-0.488).

Conclusion: These results have implications for Zimbabwe's development policy and suggest that girl-child marriage is a significant barrier to educational attainment. If not addressed, the country will most likely fail to meet sustainable development Goal 4.2 and 5.3. Social change interventions that target adults and counter beliefs about adolescent sexuality and prepubescent marriage should be put in place. Moreover, interventions that keep teenage girls in school beyond the first cycle of high school should be prioritised.