Survival Status of Esophageal Cancer Patients and Its Determinants in Ethiopia: A Facility Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Globally, the incidence and mortality due to esophageal cancer are increasing, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Cancer of the esophagus is the eighth in incidence and seventh in cancer mortality in Ethiopia. A few studies have shown an increasing burden, however, little is known about the survival pattern and its determinants among esophageal cancer patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, we assessed the survival pattern and its determinants among esophageal cancer patients.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 349 esophageal cancer patients who were diagnosed at or referred to Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia from January 2010 to May 2017. Using an abstraction form, nurses who were working at the oncology department extracted the data from patient charts. To estimate and compare the probability of survival among covariate categories, we performed a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with the log-rank test. To identify the prognostic determinants of survival, we performed a multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis.

Results: The median follow-up time was 32 months with interquartile range of 15 to 42. Overall, the median survival time after diagnosis with esophageal cancer was 4 months with one-, two- and three-year survival of 14.4, 6.3, and 2.4% respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, receiving chemotherapy [Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR)=0.36, 95%CI: 0.27-0.49], radiotherapy [AHR=0.38, 95%CI: 0.23-0.63] and surgery [AHR=0.70, 95%CI: 0.54-0.89] were statistically significant.

Conclusions: In Ethiopia, esophageal cancer patients have a very low one-, two- and three-year survival. Despite a very low overall survival, patients who received either chemotherapy, radiotherapy or surgery showed a better survival compared with those who did not receive any treatment. Hence, it is essential to improve the survival of patients with esophageal cancer through early detection and timely initiation of the available treatment options.