Model-based Spatial-temporal Mapping of Opisthorchiasis in Endemic Countries of Southeast Asia

Overview

Journal Elife

Specialty Biology

Date 2021 Jan 12

PMID 33432926

Citations 11

Authors

Ting-Ting Zhao

Yi-Jing Feng

Pham Ngoc Doanh

Somphou Sayasone

Virak Khieu

Choosak Nithikathkul

Men-Bao Qian

Yuan-Tao Hao

Ying-Si Lai

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Opisthorchiasis is an overlooked danger to Southeast Asia. High-resolution disease risk maps are critical but have not been available for Southeast Asia. Georeferenced disease data and potential influencing factor data were collected through a systematic review of literatures and open-access databases, respectively. Bayesian spatial-temporal joint models were developed to analyze both point- and area-level disease data, within a logit regression in combination of potential influencing factors and spatial-temporal random effects. The model-based risk mapping identified areas of low, moderate, and high prevalence across the study region. Even though the overall population-adjusted estimated prevalence presented a trend down, a total of 12.39 million (95% Bayesian credible intervals [BCI]: 10.10-15.06) people were estimated to be infected with in 2018 in four major endemic countries (i.e., Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam), highlighting the public health importance of the disease in the study region. The high-resolution risk maps provide valuable information for spatial targeting of opisthorchiasis control interventions.

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