The Association Between Transition from Metabolically Healthy Obesity to Metabolic Syndrome, and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Considering that the data available on the cardiovascular (CV) risk of metabolically healthy obesity phenotype, and the effect of transition to an unhealthy status are inconsistent, the aim of this study was to investigate the possible role of transition to unhealthy status among metabolically healthy overweight/obese (MHO) subjects on CVD incidence over a median follow-up of 15.9 years. In this large population-based cohort, 6758 participants (41.6% men) aged ≥ 20 years, were enrolled. Participants were divided into 4 groups based on their obesity phenotypes and follow-up results, including persistent metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), persistent MHO, transitional MHO and metabolically unhealthy overweight/obese (MUO). Metabolic health was defined as not having metabolic syndrome based on the Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for cardiovascular events. During follow-up, rate of CVD Incidence per 1000 person-years were 12 and 7 in males and females, respectively. Multivariable adjusted HRs (CI 95%) of CVD incidence among males and females were 1.37 (.78-2.41) and .85 (.34-2.15) in persistent MHO group, 1.55 (1.02-2.37) and .93 (.41-2.12) in transitional MHO group and 2.64 (1.89-3.70) and 2.65 (1.24-5.68) in MUO group. Our findings showed that CVD risk did not increase in the persistent MHO phenotype over a 15.9-year follow-up in both sexes. However, transition from MHO to MUO status during follow-up increased the CVD risk just in male individuals. Further studies are needed to provide conclusive evidence in favor of benign nature of transitional MHO phenotype in females.