Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Overview

Journal Emerg Infect Dis

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2020 Sep 12

PMID 32917290

Citations 26

Authors

Matthew Biggerstaff

Benjamin J Cowling

Zulma M Cucunuba

Linh Dinh

Neil M Ferguson

Huizhi Gao

Verity Hill

Natsuko Imai

Michael A Johansson

Sarah Kada

Oliver Morgan

Ana Pastore Y Piontti

Jonathan A Polonsky

Pragati Venkata Prasad

Talia M Quandelacy

Andrew Rambaut

Jordan W Tappero

Katelijn A Vandemaele

Alessandro Vespignani

K Lane Warmbrod

Jessica Y Wong

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

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