Predicting the Number of Bases to Attain Sufficient Coverage in High-Throughput Sequencing Experiments

For many types of high-throughput sequencing experiments, success in downstream analysis depends on attaining sufficient coverage for individual positions in the genome. For example, when identifying single-nucleotide variants de novo, the number of reads supporting a particular variant call determines our confidence in that variant call. If sequenced reads are distributed uniformly along the genome, the coverage of a nucleotide position is easily approximated by a Poisson distribution, with rate equal to average sequencing depth. Unfortunately, as has become well known, high-throughput sequencing data are never uniform. The numerous factors contributing to variation in coverage have resisted attempts at direct modeling and change along with minor adjustments in the underlying technology. We propose a new nonparametric method to predict the portion of a genome that will attain some specified minimum coverage, as a function of sequencing effort, using information from a shallow sequencing experiment from the same library. Simulations show our approach performs well under an array of distributional assumptions that deviate from uniformity. We applied this approach to estimate coverage at varying depths in single-cell whole-genome sequencing data from multiple protocols. These resulted in highly accurate predictions, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in analyzing complexity of sequencing libraries and optimizing design of sequencing experiments.