Explicit Causal Reasoning is Needed to Prevent Prognostic Models Being Victims of Their Own Success

Overview

Journal J Am Med Inform Assoc

Publisher Oxford University Press

Specialty Medical Informatics

Date 2019 Nov 14

PMID 31722385

Citations 12

Authors

Matthew Sperrin

David Jenkins

Glen P Martin

Niels Peek

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Citing Articles

Risk-Based Decision Making: Estimands for Sequential Prediction Under Interventions.

Luijken K, Morzywolek P, van Amsterdam W, Cina G, Hoogland J, Keogh R Biom J. 2024; 66(8):e70011.

PMID: 39607308 PMC: 11604027. DOI: 10.1002/bimj.70011.

Development and assessment of a machine learning tool for predicting emergency admission in Scotland.

Liley J, Bohner G, Emerson S, Mateen B, Borland K, Carr D NPJ Digit Med. 2024; 7(1):277.

PMID: 39443624 PMC: 11499905. DOI: 10.1038/s41746-024-01250-1.

Causal AI with Real World Data: Do Statins Protect from Alzheimer's Disease Onset?.

Prosperi M, Salemi M, Ghosh S, Lyu T, Bian J, Chen Z ICMHI 2021 (2021). 2023; 2021:296-303.

PMID: 37954527 PMC: 10636706. DOI: 10.1145/3472813.3473206.

External validation of models for predicting cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF treatment.

Ratna M, Bhattacharya S, McLernon D Hum Reprod. 2023; 38(10):1998-2010.

PMID: 37632223 PMC: 10546080. DOI: 10.1093/humrep/dead165.

Effects of psychological distress on the general health to self-reported pain and function outcome relationship in knee arthroplasty: A causal mediation study.

Riddle D, Jafarzadeh S Osteoarthr Cartil Open. 2022; 4(4):100315.

PMID: 36474788 PMC: 9718105. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocarto.2022.100315.

References

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Sperrin M, Martin G, Pate A, van Staa T, Peek N, Buchan I . Using marginal structural models to adjust for treatment drop-in when developing clinical prediction models. Stat Med. 2018; 37(28):4142-4154. PMC: 6282523. DOI: 10.1002/sim.7913. View

Jenkins D, Sperrin M, Martin G, Peek N . Dynamic models to predict health outcomes: current status and methodological challenges. Diagn Progn Res. 2019; 2:23. PMC: 6460710. DOI: 10.1186/s41512-018-0045-2. View

Lenert M, Matheny M, Walsh C . Prognostic models will be victims of their own success, unless…. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2019; 26(12):1645-1650. PMC: 6857506. DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocz145. View