A Risk Score Predicting New Incidence of Hypertension in Japan

Overview

Journal J Hum Hypertens

Specialty Cardiology & Vascular Diseases

Date 2019 Aug 22

PMID 31431683

Citations 8

Authors

Yuka Kadomatsu

Mineko Tsukamoto

Tae Sasakabe

Sayo Kawai

Mariko Naito

Yoko Kubo

Rieko Okada

Takashi Tamura

Asahi Hishida

Atsuyoshi Mori

Nobuyuki Hamajima

Kohei Yokoi

Kenji Wakai

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The prevention of hypertension starts with the awareness of risk. Our aim was to construct a simple and well-validated risk model for nonhypertensive people in Japan consisting of basic clinical variables, using a dataset for two areas derived from the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study. We constructed a continuous-value model using data on 5105 subjects participating in both the baseline survey and a second survey conducted after 5 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ statistic for the entire cohort were 0.826 and 7.06, respectively. For validation, the entire cohort was randomly divided 100 times into derivation and validation sets at a ratio of 6:4. The summarized median AUC and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ statistic were 0.83 and 12.2, respectively. The AUC of a point-based model consisting of integer scores assigned to each variable was 0.826 and showed no difference, compared with the continuous-value model. This simple risk model may help the general population to assess their risks of new-onset hypertension.

Citing Articles

Prognostic risk models for incident hypertension: A PRISMA systematic review and meta-analysis.

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A comparison of machine learning algorithms and traditional regression-based statistical modeling for predicting hypertension incidence in a Canadian population.

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The relationship between lipid risk score and new-onset hypertension in a prospective cohort study.

Xie H, Zhuang Q, Mu J, Sun J, Wei P, Zhao X Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2022; 13:916951.

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