Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe During 2010⁻2018

Overview

Journal Viruses

Publisher MDPI

Specialty Microbiology

Date 2019 Mar 6

PMID 30832226

Citations 52

Authors

Aleksandr Ianevski

Eva Zusinaite

Nastassia Shtaida

Hannimari Kallio-Kokko

Miia Valkonen

Anu Kantele

Kaidi Telling

Irja Lutsar

Pille Letjuka

Natalja Metelitsa

Valentyn Oksenych

Uga Dumpis

Astra Vitkauskiene

Kestutis Stasaitis

Christina Ohrmalm

Kare Bondeson

Anders Bergqvist

Rebecca J Cox

Tanel Tenson

Andres Merits

Denis E Kainov

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010⁻2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in Northern Europe. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in the region.

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