Development of a Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Using Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network Models

Overview

Journal Cancer Manag Res

Publisher Dove Medical Press

Specialty Oncology

Date 2018 Dec 21

PMID 30568493

Citations 28

Authors

Meng Hsuen Hsieh

Li-Min Sun

Cheng-Li Lin

Meng-Ju Hsieh

Chung-Y Hsu

Chia-Hung Kao

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objectives: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are suggested to have a higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. We used two models to predict pancreatic cancer risk among patients with T2DM.

Methods: The original data used for this investigation were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. The prediction models included the available possible risk factors for pancreatic cancer. The data were split into training and test sets: 97.5% of the data were used as the training set and 2.5% of the data were used as the test set. Logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were implemented using Python (Version 3.7.0). The , precision, and recall were compared between the LR and the ANN models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the prediction models were also compared.

Results: The metrics used in this study indicated that the LR model more accurately predicted pancreatic cancer than the ANN model. For the LR model, the area under the ROC curve in the prediction of pancreatic cancer was 0.727, indicating a good fit.

Conclusion: Using this LR model, our results suggested that we could appropriately predict pancreatic cancer risk in patients with T2DM in Taiwan.

Citing Articles

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in adults with new-onset diabetes: development and internal-external validation of a clinical risk prediction model.

Clift A, Tan P, Patone M, Liao W, Coupland C, Bashford-Rogers R Br J Cancer. 2024; 130(12):1969-1978.

PMID: 38702436 PMC: 11183048. DOI: 10.1038/s41416-024-02693-9.

Exploring the application and future outlook of Artificial intelligence in pancreatic cancer.

Zhao G, Chen X, Zhu M, Liu Y, Wang Y Front Oncol. 2024; 14:1345810.

PMID: 38450187 PMC: 10915754. DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1345810.

An Integrative Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Model in the UK Biobank.

Ke T, Lophatananon A, Muir K Biomedicines. 2023; 11(12).

PMID: 38137427 PMC: 10740416. DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines11123206.

A novel prediction model of the risk of pancreatic cancer among diabetes patients using multiple clinical data and machine learning.

Chen S, Phuc P, Nguyen P, Burton W, Lin S, Lin W Cancer Med. 2023; 12(19):19987-19999.

PMID: 37737056 PMC: 10587954. DOI: 10.1002/cam4.6547.

Studying infant mortality: A demographic analysis based on data mining models.

Satti M, Ali M, Irshad A, Shah M Open Life Sci. 2023; 18(1):20220643.

PMID: 37483426 PMC: 10358750. DOI: 10.1515/biol-2022-0643.

References

Steyerberg E, Eijkemans M, Harrell Jr F, Habbema J . Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets. Stat Med. 2000; 19(8):1059-79. DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000430)19:8<1059::aid-sim412>3.0.co;2-0. View

Yousaf U, Christensen M, Engholm G, Storm H . Suicides among Danish cancer patients 1971-1999. Br J Cancer. 2005; 92(6):995-1000. PMC: 2361949. DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602424. View

Deyo R, Cherkin D, Ciol M . Adapting a clinical comorbidity index for use with ICD-9-CM administrative databases. J Clin Epidemiol. 1992; 45(6):613-9. DOI: 10.1016/0895-4356(92)90133-8. View

Ahmed F . Artificial neural networks for diagnosis and survival prediction in colon cancer. Mol Cancer. 2005; 4:29. PMC: 1208946. DOI: 10.1186/1476-4598-4-29. View

Hassan M, Bondy M, Wolff R, Abbruzzese J, Vauthey J, Pisters P . Risk factors for pancreatic cancer: case-control study. Am J Gastroenterol. 2007; 102(12):2696-707. PMC: 2423805. DOI: 10.1111/j.1572-0241.2007.01510.x. View

Young B, Lin E, Von Korff M, Simon G, Ciechanowski P, Ludman E . Diabetes complications severity index and risk of mortality, hospitalization, and healthcare utilization. Am J Manag Care. 2008; 14(1):15-23. PMC: 3810070. View

Stathopoulos G, Androulakis N, Souglakos J, Stathopoulos J, Georgoulias V . Present treatment and future expectations in advanced pancreatic cancer. Anticancer Res. 2008; 28(2B):1303-8. View

Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Alagoz O, Kahn Jr C, Woods R, Burnside E . Informatics in radiology: comparison of logistic regression and artificial neural network models in breast cancer risk estimation. Radiographics. 2009; 30(1):13-22. PMC: 3709515. DOI: 10.1148/rg.301095057. View

Liao K, Lai S, Li C, Chen W . Diabetes mellitus correlates with increased risk of pancreatic cancer: a population-based cohort study in Taiwan. J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2011; 27(4):709-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1440-1746.2011.06938.x. View

10.

Li D . Diabetes and pancreatic cancer. Mol Carcinog. 2011; 51(1):64-74. PMC: 3238796. DOI: 10.1002/mc.20771. View

11.

Pandol S, Gukovskaya A, Edderkaoui M, Edderkoui M, Dawson D, Eibl G . Epidemiology, risk factors, and the promotion of pancreatic cancer: role of the stellate cell. J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2012; 27 Suppl 2:127-34. PMC: 3736749. DOI: 10.1111/j.1440-1746.2011.07013.x. View

12.

Tseng C . New-onset diabetes with a history of dyslipidemia predicts pancreatic cancer. Pancreas. 2012; 42(1):42-8. DOI: 10.1097/MPA.0b013e3182571ba9. View

13.

Kao C, Sun L, Chen P, Lin M, Liang J, Muo C . A population-based cohort study in Taiwan--use of insulin sensitizers can decrease cancer risk in diabetic patients?. Ann Oncol. 2012; 24(2):523-530. DOI: 10.1093/annonc/mds472. View

14.

Becker A, Hernandez Y, Frucht H, Lucas A . Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: risk factors, screening, and early detection. World J Gastroenterol. 2014; 20(32):11182-98. PMC: 4145757. DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v20.i32.11182. View

15.

Song S, Wang B, Zhang X, Hao L, Hu X, Li Z . Long-Term Diabetes Mellitus Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: A Meta-Analysis. PLoS One. 2015; 10(7):e0134321. PMC: 4519136. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134321. View

16.

Chen M, Tsan Y, Liou J, Lee Y, Wu M, Chiu H . Statins and the risk of pancreatic cancer in Type 2 diabetic patients--A population-based cohort study. Int J Cancer. 2015; 138(3):594-603. DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29813. View

17.

Rau H, Hsu C, Lin Y, Atique S, Fuad A, Wei L . Development of a web-based liver cancer prediction model for type II diabetes patients by using an artificial neural network. Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2015; 125:58-65. DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2015.11.009. View

18.

Er K, Hsu C, Lee Y, Huang M, Su Y . Effect of glycemic control on the risk of pancreatic cancer: A nationwide cohort study. Medicine (Baltimore). 2016; 95(24):e3921. PMC: 4998487. DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000003921. View

19.

Ilic M, Ilic I . Epidemiology of pancreatic cancer. World J Gastroenterol. 2016; 22(44):9694-9705. PMC: 5124974. DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i44.9694. View

20.

Makhoul I, Yacoub A, Siegel E . Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer: A veteran administration registry study. SAGE Open Med. 2017; 4:2050312116682257. PMC: 5354175. DOI: 10.1177/2050312116682257. View