A Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival for Biliary Tract Cancer

Overview

Journal Cancer Manag Res

Publisher Dove Medical Press

Specialty Oncology

Date 2018 Jun 27

PMID 29942155

Citations 12

Authors

Wei Song

Zhi-Gang Zhu

Qiong Wu

Chang-Guang Lv

Yong-Gang Wang

Lei Chen

Dong-Liu Miao

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in biliary tract cancer (BTC).

Patients And Methods: Patients diagnosed with BTC between 2004 and 2014 were selected for the study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly allocated to 2 sets, the training set (n = 8,869) and the validation set (n = 8,766), for the purposes of validation. The prognostic effects of each variable were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Cox regression models and a nomogram were developed based on significant prognostic factors. The predictive and discriminatory capacity of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results: Data of 17,635 patients with BTC were collected from the SEER database. Age; race; tumor site; tumor grade; T, N, and M stage; marital status; and therapy were associated with survival in the multivariate models. All these factors were integrated to construct the nomogram. The nomogram for predicting OS displayed better discrimination power than the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system 6th edition in the training set and validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS.

Conclusion: This predictive model has the potential to provide an individualized risk estimate of survival in patients with BTC.

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