Mathematical Models for Devising the Optimal Ebola Virus Disease Eradication

Overview

Journal J Transl Med

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialties Biomedical Engineering
General Medicine

Date 2017 Jun 2

PMID 28569196

Citations 6

Authors

Shuo Jiang

Kaiqin Wang

Chaoqun Li

Guangbin Hong

Xuan Zhang

Menglin Shan

Hongbin Li

Jin Wang

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: The 2014-2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human.

Methods: We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754.

Results: With incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral.

Conclusions: Based on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible.

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