Trajectories of Metabolic Risk Factors and Biochemical Markers Prior to the Onset of Type 2 Diabetes: the Population-based Longitudinal Doetinchem Study

Background: Risk factors often develop at young age and are maintained over time, but it is not fully understood how risk factors develop over time preceding type 2 diabetes. We examined how levels and trajectories of metabolic risk factors and biochemical markers prior to diagnosis differ between persons with and without type 2 diabetes over 15-20 years.

Methods: A total of 355 incident type 2 diabetes cases (285 self-reported, 70 with random glucose ⩾11.1 mmol l) and 2130 controls were identified in a prospective cohort between 1987-2012. Risk factors were measured at 5-year intervals. Trajectories preceding case ascertainment were analysed using generalised estimating equations.

Results: Among participants with a 21-year follow-up period, those with type 2 diabetes had higher levels of metabolic risk factors and biochemical markers 15-20 years before case ascertainment. Subsequent trajectories were more unfavourable in participants with type 2 diabetes for body mass index (BMI), HDL cholesterol and glucose (P<0.01), and to a lesser extent for waist circumference, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase, C-reactive protein, uric acid and estimated glomerular filtration rate compared with participants without type 2 diabetes. Among persons with type 2 diabetes, BMI increased by 5-8% over 15 years, whereas the increase among persons without type 2 diabetes was 0-2% (P<0.01). The observed differences in trajectories of metabolic risk factors and biochemical markers were largely attenuated after inclusion of BMI in the models. Results were similar for men and women.

Conclusions: Participants with diabetes had more unfavourable levels of metabolic risk factors and biochemical markers already 15-20 years before diagnosis and worse subsequent trajectories than others. Our results highlight the need, in particular, for maintenance of a healthy weight from young adulthood onwards for diabetes prevention.