Prevalence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014

Overview

Journal BMC Infect Dis

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2016 Feb 8

PMID 26852019

Citations 19

Authors

Tao Wang

Jie Liu

Yunping Zhou

Feng Cui

Zhenshui Huang

Ling Wang

Shenyong Zhai

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. Yiyuan County is one of the most serious affected areas in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Yiyuan to make the control of HFRS more effective.

Methods: The study was based on the reported cases of HFRS from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The demographic and spatial distributions of HFRS in Yiyuan were established. Then we fit autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and predict the HFRS epidemic trend.

Results: There were 362 cases reported in Yiyuan during the 10-year study period. The human infections in the fall and winter reflected a seasonal characteristic pattern of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 (AIC value 516.86) with a high validity.

Conclusion: The ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.

Citing Articles

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