Could Natural Selection Account for Molecular Evolution and Polymorphism?

A model of molecular evolution is presented that is based on the combined action of natural selection, genetic drift, and mutation. The mathematical description of the model uses strong-selection, weak-mutation limits to approximate the dynamics of multidimensional diffusion processes with one dimensional Markov chains. This approach leads to a great simplification of the dynamics and provides a unified method for describing many different mechanisms of natural selection. In this paper two models are examined, one based on selection in a randomly fluctuating environment, the other on overdominance. Both models exhibit similar dynamics, with a rapid buildup phase that introduces new alleles into the population, followed by a relatively quiescent phase where new alleles may enter and leave the population at a low rate. If occasional extreme environmental changes occur that favor particular alleles, the resulting dynamics turn out to be in remarkable agreement with many of the observations on molecular evolution and polymorphism. Thus the model is at least as successful as the neutral theory in accounting for evolutionary events at the molecular level.