The Evolution of Pandemic Influenza: Evidence from India, 1918-19

Overview

Journal BMC Infect Dis

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2014 Sep 20

PMID 25234688

Citations 13

Authors

Siddharth Chandra

Eva Kassens-Noor

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: The 1918-19 'Spanish' Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data.

Methods: This study estimates weekly deaths in 213 districts from nine provinces in India. We compute statistical measures of the severity, speed, and duration of the virulent autumn wave of the disease as it evolved and diffused throughout India. These estimates create a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic across India.

Results: Analysis of the timing and mortality patterns of the disease reveals a striking pattern of speed deceleration, reduction in peak-week mortality, a prolonging of the epidemic wave, and a decrease in overall virulence of the pandemic over time.

Conclusions: The findings are consistent with a variety of possible causes, including the changing nature of the dominant viral strain and the timing and severity of the monsoon. The results significantly advance our knowledge of this devastating pandemic at its global focal point.

Citing Articles

Birth Patterns in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in India: The Case of Madras City.

Chandra S, Sarkar R, Rynjah B Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2024; 18(7):e13355.

PMID: 39053937 PMC: 11300110. DOI: 10.1111/irv.13355.

Protocol for establishing a model for integrated influenza surveillance in Tamil Nadu, India.

Abdulkader R, Potdar V, Mohd G, Chadwick J, Raju M, Devika S Front Public Health. 2023; 11:1236690.

PMID: 37663861 PMC: 10469860. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1236690.

The story of critical care in Asia: a narrative review.

Phua J, Lim C, Faruq M, Nafees K, Du B, Gomersall C J Intensive Care. 2021; 9(1):60.

PMID: 34620252 PMC: 8496144. DOI: 10.1186/s40560-021-00574-4.

Tracking Pandemic Severity Using Data on the Age Structure of Mortality: Lessons From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan.

Chandra S, Christensen J Am J Public Health. 2021; 111(S2):S149-S155.

PMID: 34314202 PMC: 8495639. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2021.306303.

Comparing the socio-economic implications of the 1918 Spanish flu and the COVID-19 pandemic in India: A systematic review of literature.

Sharma A, Ghosh D, Divekar N, Gore M, Gochhait S, Shireshi S Int Soc Sci J. 2021; 71(Suppl 1):23-36.

PMID: 34230684 PMC: 8251181. DOI: 10.1111/issj.12266.

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