Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Overview

Journal PLoS Biol

Specialty Biology

Date 2010 Feb 27

PMID 20186267

Citations 328

Authors

Jeffrey Shaman

Virginia E Pitzer

Cecile Viboud

Bryan T Grenfell

Marc Lipsitch

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.

Citing Articles

Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread.

Chung M, Vecchi G, Yang W, Grenfell B, Metcalf C Geohealth. 2025; 9(2):e2024GH001193.

PMID: 39935807 PMC: 11811887. DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001193.

Improving influenza forecast in the tropics and subtropics: a case study of Hong Kong.

Yuan H, Lau E, Cowling B, Yang W J R Soc Interface. 2025; 22(222):20240649.

PMID: 39809330 PMC: 11732400. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0649.

One-year epidemiological patterns of respiratory pathogens across age, gender, and seasons in Chengdu during the post-COVID era.

Li X, Ma J, Li Y, Hu Z Sci Rep. 2025; 15(1):357.

PMID: 39747544 PMC: 11697200. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-84586-8.

Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.

Parino F, Gustani-Buss E, Bedford T, Suchard M, Trovao N, Rambaut A PNAS Nexus. 2024; 4(1):pgae561.

PMID: 39737444 PMC: 11683419. DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae561.

HealthPass: a contactless check-in and adaptive access control system for lowering cluster infection risk in public health crisis.

Luo G, Wang Y, Hong L, He X, Wang J, Shen Q Front Public Health. 2024; 12:1448901.

PMID: 39735762 PMC: 11672792. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1448901.

References

Miller M, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen L . The signature features of influenza pandemics--implications for policy. N Engl J Med. 2009; 360(25):2595-8. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp0903906. View

Viboud C, Bjornstad O, Smith D, Simonsen L, Miller M, Grenfell B . Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 2006; 312(5772):447-51. DOI: 10.1126/science.1125237. View

Fang R, Min Jou W, Huylebroeck D, Devos R, Fiers W . Complete structure of A/duck/Ukraine/63 influenza hemagglutinin gene: animal virus as progenitor of human H3 Hong Kong 1968 influenza hemagglutinin. Cell. 1981; 25(2):315-23. DOI: 10.1016/0092-8674(81)90049-0. View

Longini Jr I, Halloran M, Nizam A, Yang Y . Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol. 2004; 159(7):623-33. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh092. View

Brundage J, Shanks G . Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008; 14(8):1193-9. PMC: 2600384. DOI: 10.3201/eid1408.071313. View

Harper G . Airborne micro-organisms: survival tests with four viruses. J Hyg (Lond). 1961; 59:479-86. PMC: 2134455. DOI: 10.1017/s0022172400039176. View

Ho Y, Wang J, Wang J, Wu U, Chang C, Wu H . Prognostic factors for fatal adult influenza pneumonia. J Infect. 2009; 58(6):439-45. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2009.03.007. View

Cauchemez S, Ferguson N, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B . Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis. 2009; 9(8):473-81. PMC: 7106429. DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70176-8. View

Cannell J, Vieth R, Umhau J, Holick M, Grant W, Madronich S . Epidemic influenza and vitamin D. Epidemiol Infect. 2006; 134(6):1129-40. PMC: 2870528. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806007175. View

10.

Mills C, Robins J, Lipsitch M . Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature. 2004; 432(7019):904-6. PMC: 7095078. DOI: 10.1038/nature03063. View

11.

Ferguson N, Cummings D, Fraser C, Cajka J, Cooley P, Burke D . Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006; 442(7101):448-52. PMC: 7095311. DOI: 10.1038/nature04795. View

12.

Smith G, Vijaykrishna D, Bahl J, Lycett S, Worobey M, Pybus O . Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic. Nature. 2009; 459(7250):1122-5. DOI: 10.1038/nature08182. View

13.

Simonsen L, Reichert T, Viboud C, Blackwelder W, Taylor R, Miller M . Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population. Arch Intern Med. 2005; 165(3):265-72. DOI: 10.1001/archinte.165.3.265. View

14.

Lipsitch M, Viboud C . Influenza seasonality: lifting the fog. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009; 106(10):3645-6. PMC: 2656132. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0900933106. View

15.

Lowen A, Steel J, Mubareka S, Palese P . High temperature (30 degrees C) blocks aerosol but not contact transmission of influenza virus. J Virol. 2008; 82(11):5650-2. PMC: 2395183. DOI: 10.1128/JVI.00325-08. View

16.

Smith D, Lapedes A, de Jong J, Bestebroer T, Rimmelzwaan G, Osterhaus A . Mapping the antigenic and genetic evolution of influenza virus. Science. 2004; 305(5682):371-6. DOI: 10.1126/science.1097211. View

17.

Reichert T, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo S, Fedson D, Miller M . Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999. Am J Epidemiol. 2004; 160(5):492-502. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh227. View

18.

Gani R, Hughes H, Fleming D, Griffin T, Medlock J, Leach S . Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005; 11(9):1355-62. PMC: 3371825. DOI: 10.3201/eid1209.041344. View

19.

Gething M, Bye J, Skehel J, Waterfield M . Cloning and DNA sequence of double-stranded copies of haemagglutinin genes from H2 and H3 strains elucidates antigenic shift and drift in human influenza virus. Nature. 1980; 287(5780):301-6. DOI: 10.1038/287301a0. View

20.

Longini Jr I, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings D . Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science. 2005; 309(5737):1083-7. DOI: 10.1126/science.1115717. View