Field Transmission Intensity of Schistosoma Japonicum Measured by Basic Reproduction Ratio from Modified Barbour's Model

Overview

Journal Parasit Vectors

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialties Parasitology
Tropical Medicine

Date 2013 May 18

PMID 23680335

Citations 3

Authors

Shu-Jing Gao

Yu-Ying He

Yu-Jiang Liu

Guo-Jing Yang

Xiao-Nong Zhou

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Schistosomiasis japonica, caused by infection with Schistosoma japonicum, is still recognized as a major public health problem in the Peoples' Republic of China. Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis transmission has been undertaken in order to assess and project the effects of various control strategies for elimination of the disease. Seasonal fluctuations in transmission may have the potential to impact on the population dynamics of schistosomiasis, yet no model of S. japonicum has considered such effects. In this paper, we characterize the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum using a modified version of Barbour's model to account for seasonal variation (SV), and investigate the effectiveness of the control strategy adopted in Liaonan village of Xingzi county, Jiangxi Province.

Methods: We use mathematical tools for stability analysis of periodic systems and derive expressions for the basic reproduction ratio of S. japonicum in humans; we parameterise such expressions with surveillance data to investigate the conditions for persistence or elimination of the disease in the study village. We perform numerical simulations and parametric sensitivity analysis to understand local transmission conditions and compare values of the basic reproductive ratio with and without seasonal fluctuations.

Results: The explicit formula of the basic reproduction ratio for the SV-modified Barbour's model is derived. Results show that the value of the basic reproduction ratio, R0, of Liaonan village, Xingzi county is located between 1.064 and 1.066 (very close to 1), for schistosomiasis transmission during 2006 to 2010, after intensification of control efforts.

Conclusions: Our modified version of the Barbour model to account for seasonal fluctuations in transmission has the potential to provide better estimations of infection risk than previous models. Ignoring seasonality tends to underestimate R0 values albeit only marginally. In the absence of simultaneous R0 estimations for villages not under control interventions (such villages do not currently exist in China), it is difficult to assess whether control strategies have had a substantial impact on levels of transmission, as the parasite population would still be able to maintain itself at an endemic level, highlighting the difficulties faced by elimination efforts.

Citing Articles

The basic reproductive ratio of Barbour's two-host schistosomiasis model with seasonal fluctuations.

Gao S, Cao H, He Y, Liu Y, Zhang X, Yang G Parasit Vectors. 2017; 10(1):42.

PMID: 28122646 PMC: 5264280. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-1983-1.

Fine scale Spatial-temporal cluster analysis for the infection risk of Schistosomiasis japonica using space-time scan statistics.

Gao F, Abe E, Li S, Zhang L, He J, Zhang S Parasit Vectors. 2014; 7:578.

PMID: 25491192 PMC: 4273478. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-014-0578-3.

A hybrid model for predicting the prevalence of schistosomiasis in humans of Qianjiang City, China.

Zhou L, Yu L, Wang Y, Lu Z, Tian L, Tan L PLoS One. 2014; 9(8):e104875.

PMID: 25119882 PMC: 4131990. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104875.

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