Effect of Follow-up Time on the Relation Between Prediagnostic Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and All-cause Mortality Rate

Overview

Journal Dermatoendocrinol

Specialty Endocrinology

Date 2012 Aug 29

PMID 22928077

Citations 30

Authors

William B Grant

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Evidence continues to mount that vitamin D reduces the risk and mortality rates of many types of disease. However, evidence from prospective cohort studies is sometimes weaker than that from case-control and ecological studies. A suggested reason for this discrepancy is that, because serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] change over time, a single 25(OH)D concentration measurement taken at study enrollment does not reliably indicate 25(OH)D concentration related to the health outcome. To evaluate this suggestion further, this paper plots results from 12 prospective cohort studies of all-cause mortality rate vs. follow-up time. The regression fit to the hazard ratio per 20-nmol/l increase in serum 25(OH)D concentration vs. time increased from 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-1.02) for 6 y to 0.96 (95% CI, 0.90-1.01) for 14 y. The value extrapolated for zero follow-up time was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.50-1.03), giving a hazard ratio reduction 3.5 times higher than the standard result from the meta-analysis [0.92 (95% CI, 0.89-0.95)]. Using the example of the Vitamin D Pooling Project of Rarer Cancers, this paper also discusses follow-up time's effect in interpreting prospective cohort studies of cancer outcome. This paper recommends that meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies account for follow-up time and, if possible, that studies measure serum 25(OH)D concentration every 2-4 y.

Citing Articles

How Follow-Up Period in Prospective Cohort Studies Affects Relationship Between Baseline Serum 25(OH)D Concentration and Risk of Stroke and Major Cardiovascular Events.

Grant W, Boucher B Nutrients. 2024; 16(21).

PMID: 39519592 PMC: 11547645. DOI: 10.3390/nu16213759.

Follow-Up Period Affects the Association between Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration and Incidence of Dementia, Alzheimer's Disease, and Cognitive Impairment.

Grant W Nutrients. 2024; 16(18).

PMID: 39339811 PMC: 11435265. DOI: 10.3390/nu16183211.

Long Follow-Up Times Weaken Observational Diet-Cancer Study Outcomes: Evidence from Studies of Meat and Cancer Risk.

Grant W Nutrients. 2024; 16(1).

PMID: 38201857 PMC: 10781074. DOI: 10.3390/nu16010026.

Evidence That Increasing Serum 25(OH)D Concentrations to 30 ng/mL in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Could Greatly Improve Health Outcomes.

Grant W, Al Anouti F, Boucher B, Fakhoury H, Moukayed M, Pilz S Biomedicines. 2023; 11(4).

PMID: 37189612 PMC: 10136066. DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines11040994.

Vitamin D in Cancer Prevention: Gaps in Current Knowledge and Room for Hope.

Henn M, Martin-Gorgojo V, Martin-Moreno J Nutrients. 2022; 14(21).

PMID: 36364774 PMC: 9657468. DOI: 10.3390/nu14214512.

References

Virtanen J, Nurmi T, Voutilainen S, Mursu J, Tuomainen T . Association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with the risk of death in a general older population in Finland. Eur J Nutr. 2010; 50(5):305-12. DOI: 10.1007/s00394-010-0138-3. View

Hofmann J, Yu K, Horst R, Hayes R, Purdue M . Long-term variation in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration among participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2010; 19(4):927-31. PMC: 2857993. DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-09-1121. View

Chang E, Canchola A, Cockburn M, Lu Y, Wang S, Bernstein L . Adulthood residential ultraviolet radiation, sun sensitivity, dietary vitamin D, and risk of lymphoid malignancies in the California Teachers Study. Blood. 2011; 118(6):1591-9. PMC: 3156047. DOI: 10.1182/blood-2011-02-336065. View

Holick M, Binkley N, Bischoff-Ferrari H, Gordon C, Hanley D, Heaney R . Evaluation, treatment, and prevention of vitamin D deficiency: an Endocrine Society clinical practice guideline. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2011; 96(7):1911-30. DOI: 10.1210/jc.2011-0385. View

Hartge P, Lim U, Freedman D, Colt J, Cerhan J, Cozen W . Ultraviolet radiation, dietary vitamin D, and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (United States). Cancer Causes Control. 2006; 17(8):1045-52. DOI: 10.1007/s10552-006-0040-8. View

Robien K, Cutler G, Lazovich D . Vitamin D intake and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: the Iowa Women's Health Study. Cancer Causes Control. 2007; 18(7):775-82. DOI: 10.1007/s10552-007-9020-x. View

Pilz S, Dobnig H, Nijpels G, Heine R, Stehouwer C, Snijder M . Vitamin D and mortality in older men and women. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf). 2009; 71(5):666-72. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2265.2009.03548.x. View

Bates C, Hamer M, Mishra G . A study of relationships between bone-related vitamins and minerals, related risk markers, and subsequent mortality in older British people: the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of People Aged 65 Years and Over. Osteoporos Int. 2011; 23(2):457-66. PMC: 3261384. DOI: 10.1007/s00198-011-1543-z. View

Souberbielle J, Body J, Lappe J, Plebani M, Shoenfeld Y, Wang T . Vitamin D and musculoskeletal health, cardiovascular disease, autoimmunity and cancer: Recommendations for clinical practice. Autoimmun Rev. 2010; 9(11):709-15. DOI: 10.1016/j.autrev.2010.06.009. View

10.

Manson J, Bassuk S, Lee I, Cook N, Albert M, Gordon D . The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): rationale and design of a large randomized controlled trial of vitamin D and marine omega-3 fatty acid supplements for the primary prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. Contemp Clin Trials. 2011; 33(1):159-71. PMC: 3253961. DOI: 10.1016/j.cct.2011.09.009. View

11.

Chen W, Clements M, Rahman B, Zhang S, Qiao Y, Armstrong B . Relationship between cancer mortality/incidence and ambient ultraviolet B irradiance in China. Cancer Causes Control. 2010; 21(10):1701-9. DOI: 10.1007/s10552-010-9599-1. View

12.

Yin L, Grandi N, Raum E, Haug U, Arndt V, Brenner H . Meta-analysis: Circulating vitamin D and ovarian cancer risk. Gynecol Oncol. 2011; 121(2):369-75. DOI: 10.1016/j.ygyno.2011.01.023. View

13.

Lappe J, Heaney R . Why randomized controlled trials of calcium and vitamin D sometimes fail. Dermatoendocrinol. 2012; 4(2):95-100. PMC: 3427206. DOI: 10.4161/derm.19833. View

14.

Ross A, Manson J, Abrams S, Aloia J, Brannon P, Clinton S . The 2011 report on dietary reference intakes for calcium and vitamin D from the Institute of Medicine: what clinicians need to know. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2010; 96(1):53-8. PMC: 3046611. DOI: 10.1210/jc.2010-2704. View

15.

Cawthon P, Parimi N, Barrett-Connor E, Laughlin G, Ensrud K, Hoffman A . Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, parathyroid hormone, and mortality in older men. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2010; 95(10):4625-34. PMC: 3050100. DOI: 10.1210/jc.2010-0638. View

16.

Grant W . An ecological study of cancer mortality rates in the United States with respect to solar ultraviolet-B doses, smoking, alcohol consumption and urban/rural residence. Dermatoendocrinol. 2011; 2(2):68-76. PMC: 3081680. DOI: 10.4161/derm.2.2.13812. View

17.

Grant W . An estimate of the global reduction in mortality rates through doubling vitamin D levels. Eur J Clin Nutr. 2011; 65(9):1016-26. DOI: 10.1038/ejcn.2011.68. View

18.

Rejnmark L, Lauridsen A, Brot C, Vestergaard P, Heickendorff L, Nexo E . Vitamin D and its binding protein Gc: long-term variability in peri- and postmenopausal women with and without hormone replacement therapy. Scand J Clin Lab Invest. 2006; 66(3):227-38. DOI: 10.1080/00365510600570623. View

19.

Melamed M, Michos E, Post W, Astor B . 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and the risk of mortality in the general population. Arch Intern Med. 2008; 168(15):1629-37. PMC: 2677029. DOI: 10.1001/archinte.168.15.1629. View

20.

Toriola A, Surcel H, Calypse A, Grankvist K, Luostarinen T, Lukanova A . Independent and joint effects of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and calcium on ovarian cancer risk: a prospective nested case-control study. Eur J Cancer. 2010; 46(15):2799-805. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2010.05.019. View