Trends in Scale and Shape of Survival Curves

Overview

Journal Sci Rep

Specialty Science

Date 2012 Jul 14

PMID 22792436

Citations 7

Authors

Byung Mook Weon

Jung Ho Je

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

Citing Articles

Effect of Medical Accessibility on Long-Term Survival in Liver Transplantation.

Jo S, Rhu J, Kim J, Choi G, Joh J Ann Transplant. 2024; 29():e944839.

PMID: 39686546 PMC: 11662495. DOI: 10.12659/AOT.944839.

BubR1 and SIRT2: Insights into aneuploidy, aging, and cancer.

Pun R, Kumari N, Monieb R, Wagh S, North B Semin Cancer Biol. 2024; 106-107:201-216.

PMID: 39490401 PMC: 11625622. DOI: 10.1016/j.semcancer.2024.10.005.

Limits to lifespan growth.

Goncalves M, Weon B Front Public Health. 2023; 10:1037544.

PMID: 36684960 PMC: 9853412. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1037544.

Tissue aging: the integration of collective and variant responses of cells to entropic forces over time.

Todhunter M, Sayaman R, Miyano M, LaBarge M Curr Opin Cell Biol. 2018; 54:121-129.

PMID: 29908481 PMC: 6258070. DOI: 10.1016/j.ceb.2018.05.016.

Prior treatment with the AMPK activator AICAR induces subsequently enhanced glucose uptake in isolated skeletal muscles from 24-month-old rats.

Oki K, Arias E, Kanzaki M, Cartee G Appl Physiol Nutr Metab. 2018; 43(8):795-805.

PMID: 29518344 PMC: 6066428. DOI: 10.1139/apnm-2017-0858.

References

Kiss H, Mihalik A, Nanasi T, Ory B, Spiro Z, Soti C . Ageing as a price of cooperation and complexity: self-organization of complex systems causes the gradual deterioration of constituent networks. Bioessays. 2009; 31(6):651-64. DOI: 10.1002/bies.200800224. View

Mueller L, Rose M . Evolutionary theory predicts late-life mortality plateaus. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1996; 93(26):15249-53. PMC: 26389. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.93.26.15249. View

Kirkwood T, Melov S . On the programmed/non-programmed nature of ageing within the life history. Curr Biol. 2011; 21(18):R701-7. DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2011.07.020. View

Lee R . The outlook for population growth. Science. 2011; 333(6042):569-73. PMC: 3155613. DOI: 10.1126/science.1208859. View

Rajaratnam J, Marcus J, Levin-Rector A, Chalupka A, Wang H, Dwyer L . Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis. Lancet. 2010; 375(9727):1704-20. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X. View

Strehler B, Mildvan A . General theory of mortality and aging. Science. 1960; 132(3418):14-21. DOI: 10.1126/science.132.3418.14. View

McMichael A, Mckee M, Shkolnikov V, Valkonen T . Mortality trends and setbacks: global convergence or divergence?. Lancet. 2004; 363(9415):1155-9. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)15902-3. View

Wilmoth J . The future of human longevity: a demographer's perspective. Science. 1998; 280(5362):395-7. DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5362.395. View

Oeppen J, Vaupel J . Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science. 2002; 296(5570):1029-31. DOI: 10.1126/science.1069675. View

10.

Metcalf C, Pavard S . Why evolutionary biologists should be demographers. Trends Ecol Evol. 2006; 22(4):205-12. DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2006.12.001. View

11.

Yashin A, Begun A, Boiko S, Ukraintseva S, Oeppen J . The new trends in survival improvement require a revision of traditional gerontological concepts. Exp Gerontol. 2001; 37(1):157-67. DOI: 10.1016/s0531-5565(01)00154-1. View

12.

Golubev A . Does Makeham make sense?. Biogerontology. 2004; 5(3):159-67. DOI: 10.1023/B:BGEN.0000031153.63563.58. View

13.

Mathers C, Boerma T . Mortality measurement matters: improving data collection and estimation methods for child and adult mortality. PLoS Med. 2010; 7(4):e1000265. PMC: 2854121. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000265. View

14.

Lee R . Sociality, selection, and survival: simulated evolution of mortality with intergenerational transfers and food sharing. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008; 105(20):7124-8. PMC: 2438215. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0710234105. View

15.

Weon B, Je J . Plasticity and rectangularity in survival curves. Sci Rep. 2012; 1:104. PMC: 3216589. DOI: 10.1038/srep00104. View

16.

Christensen K, Doblhammer G, Rau R, Vaupel J . Ageing populations: the challenges ahead. Lancet. 2009; 374(9696):1196-208. PMC: 2810516. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61460-4. View

17.

Lee R . Rethinking the evolutionary theory of aging: transfers, not births, shape senescence in social species. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003; 100(16):9637-42. PMC: 170970. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1530303100. View

18.

PARTRIDGE , Mangel . Messages from mortality: the evolution of death rates in the old. Trends Ecol Evol. 1999; 14(11):438-442. DOI: 10.1016/s0169-5347(99)01646-8. View

19.

Weon B, Je J . Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan. Biogerontology. 2008; 10(1):65-71. DOI: 10.1007/s10522-008-9156-4. View

20.

Hawkes K, Smith K, Blevins J . Human actuarial aging increases faster when background death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?. Evolution. 2012; 66(1):103-14. PMC: 4010320. DOI: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2011.01414.x. View