Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: a Simple Method to Estimate R(0) from Early Epidemic Growth Data

Overview

Journal Int J Environ Res Public Health

Publisher MDPI

Specialties Environmental Health
Public Health

Date 2010 Mar 3

PMID 20195446

Citations 31

Authors

Hiroshi Nishiura

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The basic reproduction number, R(0), a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R(0) without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R(0) values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R(0) using a spreadsheet.

Citing Articles

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the time-varying reproduction number: statistical methods.

Jang G, Kim J, Lee Y, Son C, Ko K, Lee H Front Public Health. 2024; 12:1353441.

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SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries.

Oduro M, Arhin-Donkor S, Asiedu L, Kadengye D, Iddi S BMC Public Health. 2024; 24(1):612.

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Reliability of Early Estimates of the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Dhungel B, Rahman M, Rahman M, K C Bhandari A, Le P, Biva N Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022; 19(18).

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Estimation of the Reproductive Number Trend of the Novel Coronavirus "COVID-19" in Southern Iran from July to November 2020.

Hasanzadeh J, Rezaei F, Mirahmadizadeh A Iran J Med Sci. 2022; 47(4):320-327.

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On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number.

Vanni F, Lambert D, Palatella L, Grigolini P Sci Rep. 2021; 11(1):23286.

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