Cumulative Pregnancy Rates After a Maximum of Nine Cycles of Modified Natural Cycle IVF and Analysis of Patient Drop-out: a Cohort Study

Background: In modified natural cycle IVF (MNV-IVF), treatment is aimed at using the one follicle that spontaneously develops to dominance, using a GnRH antagonist together with gonadotrophins in the late follicular phase only.

Methods: In this single-centre cohort study, nine cycles of MNV-IVF were offered to 268 patients. Cumulative pregnancy rates (CPRs) were calculated and drop-out was analysed. The present study is an extension of earlier studies in which three cycles of MNV-IVF were offered to the same patients.

Results: A total of 256 patients completed 1048 cycles (4.1 per patient). Embryo transfer rate was 36.5% per started cycle. Ongoing pregnancy rate was 7.9% per started cycle and 20.7% per embryo transfer. Including treatment-independent pregnancies, the observed CPR after up to nine cycles was 44.4% (95% confidence interval 38.3-50.5) per patient. Pregnancy rates per started cycle did not decline in higher cycle numbers (overall 9.9%). Drop-out rates were high (overall 47.8%). We found that cancellation of oocyte retrieval, fertilization failure and failure to reach embryo transfer are repeating phenomena in subsequent cycles and furthermore that these events predispose for drop-out.

Conclusions: CPR after nine cycles of MNV-IVF in this study was 44.4%. Pregnancy rate per cycle did not decline in higher cycle numbers, possibly due to selective drop-out of poor prognosis patients. Due to the low-risk and patient-friendly nature of the MNC protocol, it seems a feasible treatment option for patients requiring IVF.