A Population-based Analysis of Survival Factors in Differentiated and Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

Objective: The study purpose was to determine survival and prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC).

Methods: Cases of DTC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database from 1988 through 1998. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted for papillary, follicular, and medullary histologies. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to examine the influence of age, gender, tumor size, local extension, and cervical node involvement on overall survival.

Results: A total of 18,118 cases were identified, including 15,820 (87.3%) papillary carcinomas, 1799 (9.9%) follicular carcinomas, and 499 (2.8%) medullary carcinomas. Mean survival (10-year survival) was 122 (87.7%), 117 (80.2%), and 108 (73.7%) months for papillary, follicular, and medullary tumors, respectively. For each histology, increasing age, male gender, and degree of local extension substantially reduced survival. Cervical metastasis did not influence survival for papillary or follicular carcinomas but approached significance for medullary carcinoma (P = 0.065).

Conclusions: Degree of local extension in thyroid carcinoma should be subclassified to more accurately determine prognosis. Treatment of the neck should be considered for medullary thyroid carcinoma.