Adrian E Raftery
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Explore the profile of Adrian E Raftery including associated specialties, affiliations and a list of published articles.
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89
Citations
2495
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Recent Articles
1.
Liu P, Sevcikova H, Raftery A
J Stat Softw
. 2024 Oct;
106.
PMID: 39469136
The package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of...
2.
Zeppetello L, Raftery A, Battisti D
Commun Earth Environ
. 2024 Oct;
3(1).
PMID: 39421457
The Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. Here, using probabilistic emission projections, we show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO...
3.
Porwal A, Raftery A
N Engl J Stat Data Sci
. 2024 Oct;
1(2):149-158.
PMID: 39417150
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a coherent way to account for model uncertainty in statistical inference tasks. BMA requires specification of model space priors and parameter space priors. In this...
4.
Sevcikova H, Raftery A
J Off Stat
. 2024 Oct;
37(3):591-610.
PMID: 39391742
Projecting mortality for subnational units, or regions, is of great interest to practicing demographers. We seek a probabilistic method for projecting subnational life expectancy that is based on the national...
5.
Jiang B, Raftery A, Steele R, Wang N
J Am Stat Assoc
. 2024 Oct;
117(537):52-66.
PMID: 39391212
There is a growing expectation that data collected by government-funded studies should be openly available to ensure research reproducibility, and so is the concern on data-privacy. A strategy to protect...
6.
Liu D, Raftery A
Ann Appl Stat
. 2024 Sep;
18(1):375-403.
PMID: 39347488
Women's educational attainment and contraceptive prevalence are two mechanisms identified as having an accelerating effect on fertility decline and that can be directly impacted by policy. Quantifying the potential accelerating...
7.
Chen X, Raftery A, Battisti D, Liu P
Clim Dyn
. 2024 Sep;
60(7-8):2303-2314.
PMID: 39347453
The climate change projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on scenarios for future emissions, but these are not statistically-based and do not have a full probabilistic...
8.
Raftery A, Carriquiry A, Daniels M, Gatsonis C, Goodman S, Herring A, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
. 2023 Nov;
120(47):e2317870120.
PMID: 37967219
No abstract available.
9.
Yu C, Sevcikova H, Raftery A, Curran S
Demography
. 2023 May;
60(3):915-937.
PMID: 37212712
Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future...
10.
Raftery A, Sevcikova H
Int J Forecast
. 2022 Dec;
39(1):73-97.
PMID: 36568848
Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using...