Reasoning Biases in Delusion-prone Individuals

Objectives: The objective was to test whether individuals high in delusional ideation exhibit a reasoning bias on tasks involving hypothesis testing and probability judgments. On the basis of previous findings (e.g. Garety, Hemsley & Wessely, 1991), it was predicted that individuals high in delusional ideation would exhibit a 'jump-to-conclusions' style of reasoning and would be less sensitive to the effects of random variation, in comparison to individuals low in delusional ideation.

Design: A non-randomized matched groups design was employed enabling the performance of the delusion prone individuals to be compared to that of a control group.

Method: Forty individuals, selected from the normal population, were divided into groups high and low in delusional ideation, according to their scores on the Peters et al. Delusions Inventory (Peters, Day & Garety, 1996), and were compared on two tasks involving probability judgment and two tasks involving hypothesis testing.

Results: Although no significant differences were found on tasks involving hypothesis testing and the aggregation of probabilistic information, it was found that individuals high in delusional ideation had a 'jump-to-conclusions' style of data gathering and were less sensitive to the effects of random variation, in comparison to individuals low in delusional ideation.

Conclusions: In conclusion, although individuals high in delusional ideation were not found to have a general reasoning bias, some evidence of a more specific bias was found. It is thought that these aberrations may play some role in delusion formation in schizophrenia and paranoia.